Why Gasoline-Blooded Enthusiasts Will Learn to Love Hybrids
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Motor Trend was recently asked to present a keynote speech at the Society of Automotive Engineers' annual Hybrid Vehicle Technologies Symposium, and I was tapped to deliver it. I decided to take the true outsider's view -- that of a car-guy horsepower freak who isn't the least bit interested in hybrids, and talk about what it may take to win my ilk over. Of course, in real life I do kind of enjoy driving hybrids, but only in a geeky, hypermiling kind of way. But there's a lot going on in the aftermarket and the motorsports arena that could win the unabashed speed freaks among us over to the hybrid cause. I presented these developments as a roadmap to the car-nut's heart.  Of course, for starters there's a plainly obvious mathematical attraction to hybrid vehicles. In a 35-mpg CAFE world, selling four milquetoast earth-hugging nine-second-0-60-mph Malibu Hybrids allows the sale of one fire-breathing 3.3-second Corvette ZR1 without incurring any fines for Chevrolet. That magic ratio will certainly be even lower for plug-ins like the Chevy Volt and Cadillac Converj concept, although we won't be able to do the math on those cars until NHTSA and the EPA figure out exactly how they're going to test them (and I'm eager for them to announce some sort of plan so the shade-tree plug-in hybrid fringe players can stop advertising these wild 200-plus-mpg claims that get the hoi paloi so riled up.  Okay that first point was kind of a cynical cheat, because the hybrids themselves don't directly engage the enthusiast, though I suppose it's fair to interject here that great looking, dynamic designs like the Cadillac Converj will draw enthusiasts no matter what's under the hood. And as cars like this, and the Fisker Karma (if it ever actually materializes, which I'm not overly confident of), and even the Tesla are getting the word out that an electric drivetrain doesn't have to deliver golf-cart/sensible shoes driving. And the range-extended electric concept certainly opens the door to a much wider range of auxiliary power units. I fully expect to see a turbine-powered generator serving as the range extender in one of these vehicles soon, as that solution is arguably better suited to the task than a reciprocating piston engine, and turbines can be made to run on a variety of alternative fuels. And a jet-powered hybrid certainly sounds sexy, no?  The automotive aftermarket primarily exists to serve the enthusiast, and if this past year's SEMA show in Las Vegas was any indication, the players in this $37-billion business foresee a market for green gear-heads. This year an entire section of the show was devoted to "Making Green Cool." A123Systems was on-hand showing off its Hymotion kit that converts any 2004-2009 Prius into a plug-in hybrid. At the heart of this kit is a 5kW-hour L5 Nanophosphate lithium-ion battery pack weighing 187 pounds. It mounts in about three hours, with everything fitting beneath the trunk floor in the spare tire well. The system plugs into the Toyota's power grid with no modifications to the stock controller. Because of the way the Hybrid Synergy Drive planetary transmission works, the engine simply must be used at certain vehicle speeds, and most regenerated energy goes back into the stock nickel-metal-hydride battery, but the plug-in battery gradually discharges, increasing the amount of time the car can operate at low speeds in electric mode. It recharges in about five hours when plugged into a conventional 115-volt outlet. Priced at about ten grand installed (plus shipping), buyers get more in the way of bragging rights than they do future economic benefit, but I suppose the same can probably be said of many of the products featured at SEMA.  The much more enthusiast-oriented gas/electric SEMA star was Braille Battery's Nissan Altima Hot Rod Hybrid (also pictured at top). Developed and built in conjunction with Universal Technical Institute, its 2.5-liter four-cylinder is tuned to run on E85 gasohol and gets an electric-powered Vortech supercharger that ups combustion output to about 270 horses. The traction motor is also juiced up to produce a reported 440 total-system horsepower. A reworked suspension and fat 40-series low-rolling-resistance Yokohama tires supposedly provide 1.02g lateral grip and quarter-mile acceleration times of 12.9 seconds at 109.2 mph. Its roof is also covered in solar panels, though it's hard to imagine that they could really pay off in extended range or added power even when circulating a high-desert track like California's Willow Springs. (Now that I think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if decals that look like solar-panels didn't become the woodgrain or faux carbon fiber of the hybrid-geek future.) And what about gas mileage? The fuel tank will reportedly last for 35 laps of the 3.7-mile race circuit in Sebring, Florida, as compared with only 20 in a conventional non-hybrid Altima race car. We'll find out how well this hybrid hardware performs when the Hot Rod Hybrid competes in a newly formed Hybrid/electric class of this season's Redline Time Attack series of road-racing-circuit time-trials. It'll also be entered in April's Cannonball Run/One-Lap of America race (with Motor Trend as this year's media parther).  The final SEMA hybrid I'll mention is the RENNtech Mercedes GLK Pikes Peak Hybrid SUV. This entry also gets a souped-up combustion engine (computer upgrades, exhaust headers, new heads and cams), to which is added a mild-hybrid motor/alternator, not unlike those used in the Chevy Malibu/Saturn Aura Hybrids. This bolt-on unit supposedly adds up to 40 pound-feet of twist to the engine, drawing from a motor-generator and a 72-volt battery pack. The SEMA show car used six Optima 12-volt spiral-wound lead-acid batteries located in the spare-tire well, but a nickel-metal-hydride pack capable of being recharged during regenerative braking will be developed before this concept makes its official debut in the exhibition class at the 87th Annual Pikes Peak International Hill Climb this July.  And while the Redline Time Attack, One Lap, and an exhibition class at Pikes Peak may not draw very much attention, these last two examples are charging down a direct path to the enthusiast's heart: motorsports. Of course, throughout the automotive age, racing has driven such automotive innovations as disc brakes, fuel injection and countless other advances in automotive performance, efficiency, and safety. Nobody knows this better than the SAE, which organized a Green Racing Committee whose task it was to develop a set of Recommended Green Racing Protocols, which was just published last October. SAE started by holding a number of technical forums to gather input on the topic from manufacturers, motorsports sanctioning bodies, race teams, etc. Then a working group comprised of representatives of the EPA, the Department of Energy, Argonne National Labs, the American LeMans Series (ALMS) and its sanctioning body, the International Motor Sports Association, set about drafting the protocols. The protocols are based on five elements: 1. Use of renewable fuels; The Green Challenge ranking system takes into account the amount of energy each car uses, the greenhouse gases it produces and the fossil fuels consumed-on a well-to-wheels basis (calculated using Argonne's well known GREET analysis). These ranking factors are compiled into a single weighted number representing the car's environmental performance. The first race to include a Green Racing class was the ALMS Petite LeMans race, a 1000-mile high-speed endurance race run on the 2.5-mile Road Atlanta circuit on October 4, 2008. Included in the nearly 40 entries were conventional gasoline engines, direct injection gasoline engines, diesel engines, and-yes-hybrid assist technology. Fuels used include gasoline with 10% ethanol (E10), E85 ethanol made using cellulosic processes, and ultra-low sulfur diesel with a portion of synthetic diesel made from a gas-to-liquid process.  The Corsa Motorsports/Zytek LMP1 Hybrid entry is based on a Zytek 07S carbon fiber/aluminum monocoque chassis and powered by an ethanol-fueled 4.5-liter 32-valve Zytek V-8 producing 625 horsepower and a proprietary Zytek direct-drive electric motor energized by a lithium-ion battery pack supplied by Continental AG of Germany. Unfortunately, teething problems with the inverter, battery, kinetic energy recovery system and attendant wiring, cooling and management systems required further development, and the Hybrid missed its first two potential races. It's still expected to appear on the 2009 grid. The winners of the Green Challenge at this year's Petite Le Mans included a lightweight E10-powered direct-injected Penske-Porsche in the prototype class, and a GM Racing Corvette burning cellulosic E85 in the GT class.  It's worth noting here that almost exactly 10 years prior to last October's Petite Le Mans race, another hybrid running a Zytek electric motor coupled to the transaxle of a Roush V-8 appeared. This Panoz Q9 LMP1 Spyder was affectionately nicknamed "Sparky." Then as now, the idea was that regenerative braking would save wear on the friction brakes while electric boost extended range between refueling stops. But because the weight of the 1998-era battery pack was so great, the car finished 12th overall and never competed again. Hopefully in the months to come we'll find out whether modern batteries and 2009 controller technology-not to mention Green Racing Protocols-can make the hybrid racer competitive.  Endurance racing is a great forum for technology development, but to tap into the serious money and engage a truly huge global fan base, you need to get Formula One racing involved. And that is scheduled to happen this season. Formula One's rules changes for 2009 are the most extensive in years. They're aimed largely at making the series more interesting to watch by encouraging more passing and by making the technology employed more relevant to the fans. A huge part of that is the admission this year of kinetic energy recovery systems, or KERS for short. Naturally, the official KERS regulations are fairly extensive and will be strictly enforced. There are way more, but here are a few highlights: - Maximum power in and out of the system is 60kW (80.46 HP) as measured at the wheels. (This limit may rise over the years.)  There are a squillion safety regs too, calling for status lights and system shutdown protocols, and the like, but there is wide latitude as to the method of energy storage. Almost anything goes that can meet the requirements, be it hydraulic, mechanical, electrical, compressed air, whatever. Hydraulic storage appears to be a non-starter, as 40 liters of oil would be required to store the allowable energy, and that's simply too heavy. Electric storage in batteries and/or ultracapacitors is the obvious approach that most teams appear to be working on, and they're finding it's not a simple matter of scaling up a Prius system by a factor of three. To date several of these teams are still grappling with some fairly serious safety concerns. A BMW-Sauber team mechanic sustained an electric shock while testing in Jerez Spain, and the Red Bull team reported a "smoke and fume" incident at its development center in the UK. Toyota engine boss Luca Marmorini told the German magazine Sport Bild that: "All teams are having problems at the moment. Building a safe system is proving a difficult thing, and for 2009, time is running out."-Luca Marmorini, Team Toyota Other German newspaper reports quote Mark Webber of the drivers' safety union saying: "Some teams are having problems with the chemicals that are used for the batteries. It is important to us that it is safe, when we are driving at 300km/h, or in the event of a heavy accident." - Mark Webber, GPDA (drivers' safety union) And Williams driver Nico Rosberg admitted that: "For the first few races (of 2009), no team will be on the grid with KERS." - Nico Rosberg, Team Williams driver  Rest assured that these hiccups will be overcome. But there is another system that really intrigues me. It's a mechanical energy storage device that stores energy as rotational inertia in a flywheel. Now, if any of you is an avid racing fan, you may be thinking of the last flywheel hybrid racecar that made headlines, Chrysler's Patriot. That Le Mans prototype was electrically powered, with energy coming from a turbine-generator running at nearly constant speeds, with surplus power (and braking energy) being used to spin up a flywheel large enough to supply supplemental power down the long Mulsanne Straight at the Le Mans circuit in France. Safely containing that gigantic flywheel proved impossible, and the project was shelved. But the maximum power permitted by F1 is so much lower that the concept is quite workable now. Flybrid Systems in the UK is developing the flywheel, which is made of long-filament carbon fiber and high-strength steel. It's only 8 inches in diameter and about 4 inches wide, and it spins in a vacuum on special patented hermetic bearings (this is necessary, because at its top speed of 64,500 rpm, the rim velocity would be over mach 3, and the air-friction would be too great). The flywheel weighs about 11 pounds, 22 including the containment drum, bearings and so forth. Flybrid has crash-tested the unit, spinning it up to top speed and subjecting it to a 20g impact. The flywheel survived the crash still spinning and undamaged. A planetary gearset reduces the speed by about 5:1, and then a centrifugal clutch connects the device to a toroidal continuously variable transmission that manages the ratio difference between the flywheel and the geared connection to the car's transaxle output shaft. Torotrak and Xtrac are responsible for this part of the technology. In race conditions the flywheel always spins at between 32,250 and 64,500 rpm, and can reportedly go from zero to full power storage in 50 milliseconds. The entire package is said to weigh just 53 poundsand it only needs half a cubic foot of packaging space. That's believed to be considerably less space and weight than the electric hybrid systems require, which gives teams more ballast weight to work with and leaves them free to put it where it can do the most good dynamically. Not only is it power-dense, Flybrid claims that by not having to convert energy from mechanical to electrical and back again, its in-and-out system efficiency should fall between 65-70 percent, as compared with 35-45 percent for an electrical system.  Flybrid claims the technology can easily be sized, tuned, and packaged for use on road cars and last May the company embarked on a Flywheel Hybrid System for Premium Vehicles project in conjunction with Jaguar. Who knows? Maybe mechanical hybrid systems will turn out to be the best solution for high-performance vehicles-either practically, or from a marketing perspective, if flywheel KERS systems start winning high-profile Formula One races around the globe and energizing the enthusiast base. Recapping my things-to-do list for hybrid engineers to win enthusiast hearts and minds to the hybrid cause: - Boost hybrid fuel economy as high as possible to offset the guzzler hotrods we love |
Prius or Pickups?
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Here's one for all those dimbulbs in Washington who think running a car company ain't that hard: If you were in charge of Toyota, would you have halted work this week on the $1.3 billion factory near Tupelo, Mississippi, that was intended to build the new Prius hybrid? After all, the Prius is precisely the sort of fuel-efficient car you've said the Detroit automakers should be building, at labor costs you've said they should be paying.
Except there's one small problem: Sales of the Prius last month were about half the level they were in November 2007. Meantime, helped by deep discounts -- up to $6000 on some 2008 models -- Ford F-150 sales for November were down just 18.5% compared with November last year, while Chevy Silverado sales were down just 22%.
Obviously, the meltdown in the economy accounts for some of the fall-off in Prius sales: Toyota's total volume in November was down 32% as fearful, credit-crunched customers stayed away from dealerships in droves. But the fact that gas in the U.S. now costs, on average, less than half as much as it did in the summer, is undoubtedly having an effect. The 8660 Priuses Toyota sold last month compares starkly with the 21,000-plus it sold in April as gas raced toward the $4/gallon mark. It also compares starkly with the 37,911 F-150s and 29,534 Silverados shifted by Ford and Chevy dealers in November despite frozen credit and swirling rumors of bankruptcy.
The Prius problem highlights the major challenge facing any bailout of the Detroit Three. If Toyota, allegedly the smartest guys in the room when it comes to the auto biz, can't figure out what American consumers want one month to the next (as of a few months back the Tupelo plant was actually slated to build Highlander SUVs) how on earth is Capitol Hill, or any so-called "car czar" for that matter, going to be able to figure out which direction Detroit's salvation lies? Building Prius clones? Or pickups? Which will give us the best chance of getting our loan money paid back?
There's no question gas prices will rise again once the global economy climbs out of the crater and demand for oil picks up. But as of right now, no one has any idea when that might happen and how fast gas prices might rise. Goldman Sachs recently forecast oil would slump to $30 a barrel, but these are the same geniuses who predicted it would hit $200 a barrel earlier this year. So it's anyone's guess, although futures for deliveries beyond 2013 are trading above $75 a barrel.
Against that background, full-size pickup trucks look like they could still be profitable business for a leaner, lower cost, slimmed-down Detroit for a few years yet.
As has been widely reported, it now looks likely President Bush will allow some of the TARP bank bailout funds to be used to throw GM and Chrysler a financial lifeline. The specter of a massive jump in unemployment -- and what that would do to an economy already reeling from a collapse in consumer confidence -- seems to have gotten the attention of even the hardliners in the White House. "If the auto industry goes belly up now," Vice President Dick Cheney told talk show host Rush Limbaugh, "there's a deep concern that would be a major shock to the system." D'oh...
Of course, any money doled out by the White House this week won't solve the problem. All it will do it buy time -- little more than three months -- to leave the freshly minted Obama administration between a rock (letting the Detroit Three fail and dealing with the grim social and economic cost of 12% unemployment within two years) and a hard place (pouring what has been estimated at $75 to $125 billion into creating a retooled Detroit that will almost certainly be composed of fewer companies making fewer vehicles).
President-elect Obama has said he won't let the American auto industry fail. But will he see pickup trucks as part of the solution? Or part of the problem that got Detroit in this mess in the first place.
Could the EPA cripple the Chevy Volt?
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Word around Detroit is GM and the EPA are apparently duking it out over the Chevy Volt. The problem is this: Is the Volt an electric car or a hybrid? How you define the Volt is important, because it dictates how the official EPA fuel-economy numbers will be calculated.
Strictly speaking, the Volt is a hybrid in that it is an electric vehicle with an on-board internal-combustion engine (likely a version of GM's 1.4L Family Zero four). The internal-combustion engine, which is connected to a generator, acts as a range extender when the Volt's lithium-ion battery pack runs low on power.
The Volt's electric drive unit is designed to run 40 miles purely on the power from the battery pack. After that, then the internal-combustion engine kicks in, generating enough electricity to power the electric drive for what GM says is hundreds of miles more.
Unlike a hybrid like the Prius, which uses its electric motor, gas engine, or a combination of both to turn the wheels, the Volt's wheels are turned only by its electric drive unit.
Now, here's the rub: Reports suggest the Volt can make it through the EPA test cycle -- which from 2008 includes high-speed running, air-conditioning load, and cold-start tests in addition to the city and highway cycles -- with the internal-combustion engine running about 15% of the time.
The straightforward calculation gives the Volt an EPA fuel-consumption rating somewhere north of 100 mpg. But the EPA apparently wants to certify the Volt differently, insisting it finishes the test with the batteries close to full charge. That drops the calculated fuel consumption to just under 48 mpg, because the internal-combustion engine would have to be run essentially all the time to keep the batteries near full charge.
GM argues, with some justification, the EPA's methodology does not reflect the duty cycle for which the Volt was designed. Many consumers, insiders insist, may never have the internal-combustion engine come on at all if their total daily commute is 40 miles or less, or if they recharge the car at their workplace.
The problem is if the Volt goes to market with an EPA rating that is not substantially better than can be achieved by hybrids, diesels, or other small cars, GM insiders worry consumers may not see the value in the car's near-$40,000 price tag.
"Green Car" Guys Are Hot! (?)
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From this month’s Playboy magazine: “88% of American women say they would be more attracted to a man who has a hot, new fuel-efficient car than a hot, new sports car.” There’s an interesting stat that could open up many a can of worms.
On one hand, I get it. A guy driving a fuel-efficient car is demonstrating that he’s smart. He doesn't waste money, doesn't want to pollute the atmosphere, is mindful of earth’s resources, and supports the need to get off the drug that is foreign oil. Yet, for better or worse, our rides make certain statements about who we are.
Many books have been written about what attracts one person to another. Several have suggested that humans use material possessions as forms of the mating call, much as do certain birds when they flash brightly colored feathers. I’m not suggesting that all it takes to capture the woman of your dreams or fantasies is an F430 Spider, but I’m wondering if 88% of attractive, single females would really get more steamed up by a beige Camry Hybrid, at least in terms of a first connection.
I read a study in a men’s magazine about appearances and attractiveness. They dressed a guy in a fast-food restaurant uniform and put him in a dumpy car, and showed the photos to a control group of women. Then they dressed him in a really sharp business suit and put him at the wheel of a German luxury car. Another similar group of women rated him twice more attractive than the first population did. Remember: same guy. Just different threads, wheels, and accoutrements. So, the notion that appearances make a difference isn't complete bunk.
I’m not advocating shallow relationships or saying that women are materialistic or gold diggers or any of that, so please save those responses for another time. But I’m not buying Playboy’s stat, which says that nearly nine of every 10 women would be more attracted -- at least initially -- to the dude in the fuel sipper than in something a little racier.
What do you think?
